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Fall of Syria's Assad 'only a matter of time'

Ex-UN observer mission chief says president's days are numbered but his exit may not end the conflict. Last Modified: 27 Jul 2012 14:17

The former head of the UN observer mission in Syria has said that Bashar al-Assad's fall is "only a matter of time", but that his exit may not end the conflict.

"Sooner or later, the regime will fall," Robert Mood, the Norwegian general whose mandate to lead a 300-strong misson ended last week amid a sharp spike in violence, said on Friday.

"The spiral of violence, the lack of proportion in the regime's reactions, its incapacity to protect the civilian population, mean that the regime's days are numbered, but will it fall in a week or in a year? That is a question I do not dare answer," he told the AFP news agency.

Mood characterised the fight between the rebels, who are fragmented into several different factions, some of whom are armed, and the country's military as a case of "David versus Goliath".

He said that a rebel success in achieving the resignation of Assad, their stated objective, would not necessarily lead to the end of the conflict.

"Many think that if Bashar al-Assad falls or that if he is given an honourable exit... the problem will be solved. That is an over-simplification one should be wary of," Mood told a news conference.

"The situation could even get worse," he cautioned.

"On the other hand, it is important to say that it is impossible to imagine a future Syria with the current power holders still in place."

"Every time there are 15 people killed in a village, 500 additional sympathisers are mobilised, roughly 100 of whom are fighters," Mood said.

He cautioned, however, that the conflict "could last for months or even years". 

Mood has now been replaced in Syria by Lieutenant General Babacar Gaye, a Senegalese military officer who is taking over a drastically reduced mission of just 150 observers. Lt-Gen Gaye's mission has a mandate of only 30 days.

Defections continue

Meanwhile, abandonment of Assad by members of his government continued on Friday, when Ikhlas Badawi, who represents the city of Aleppo in Syria's newly elected parliament, fled to Turkey, according to the opposition.

SYRIAN DEFECTIONS

A number of high-profile members of Bashar al-Assad's government have renounced his authority and abandoned his government. Below are some of the higher profile cases:  Nawaf Fares Ambassador to Iraq  Abdul Latif al-Dabbagh Ambassador to the United Arab Emirates  Manaf Tlas Former Brigadier-General, close friend to Assad  Ikhlas Badawi Member of Parliament for Aleppo

"There were contacts for some time to ensure her a safe place," Samir Nashhar, a member of the opposition Syrian National Council, told AFP. "She arrived [on Thursday] in Turkey and she will be going to Qatar, which has agreed to receive her."

Nasshar said that Syrian authorities had asked legislators in Aleppo to leave the city ahead of a planned major offensive on the city.

"They were ordered to take a plane because the Damascus-Aleppo highway wasn't safe, but she took a plane to Turkey instead," said Nasshar, who is originally from Aleppo and currently based in Turkey.

Badawi, who fled with her six children, is now the fourth Syrian lawmaker to publically break with the government since the uprising against Assad began in Marach last year.

In January, Imad Ghalioun, a member of the parliamentary budget committee, announced he was seeking refuge in Egypt, calling on the opposition to ensure the interest of the Syrian people "who want to achieve freedom".

Badawi, a member of Assad's Baath party, is the first member of the parliament elected in May to renounce him, however.

Earlier, one of the most senior figures to defect from Assad's inner circle, Brigadier General Manaf Tlas, put himself forward on Thursday as someone who could help unify the opposition inside and outside Syria on a plan for a transfer of power.

Tlas, speaking in a newspaper interview in the Saudi city of Jeddah, also said he was looking for support from Saudi Arabia and other powers. - sumber