Gambaran Keupayaan Ketentera Syria

An overview of Syria’s military capabilities

The fights between the Syrian army and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) are typical examples of unsymmetrical warfare. (Source: Anhar Kochneva)

When examining Syria’s military capabilities, it becomes clear just why the Assad regime is reluctant to step down from power.

The fights between the Syrian army and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) are typical examples of unsymmetrical warfare. The level of organization, weaponry, tactical and strategic capacities, as well as geographical positions, is far better in the army loyal to the regime. The governmental forces are not so well equipped, but the organization can, nonetheless, fight against guerrilla cells and foreign intervention.

Syria has almost 300,000 soldiers and 314,000 in reserve. The quality of these army groups is not too high. The compulsory military service is 30 months. The defectors are mainly from these units, the elite groups are loyal to the Al-Assad regime, partly as they usually belong to the same minority, the Alawites.

Soviet guns and American replicas

The weaponry of the Syrian land forces are mainly Russian and Soviet guns, such as Makarov and AK-47s, but Belgian FN FAL rifles and Iranian and Chinese copies of American M-16s can also be seen. For ground-based attacks, the Syrian army uses Soviet PK machine guns and SPG-9 recoilless guns. The equipment can be seen in hands of FSA fighters as well – defectors probably brought them.

The mobility of Syrian land forces is clearly better than isolated rebel forces. Even though the FSA has some trucks, the Al-Assad-loyal army has 1,860-2,100 armored personnel carriers from Soviet times in addition to trucks.

Against the FSA, the use of tanks is very limited since they are too heavy. However, the Syrian army can demonstrate their power and use them against towns. The army has more than 5,000 tanks, mainly outdated Soviet equipment, but they cannot be easily fought with handguns.

Hard to occupy

States around Syria have very different interests in the ongoing situation. Russia's geopolitical interests are linked to the present regime, because of the weaponry and the stability of the Middle East. China is in the same situation. The balance in the region is very delicate, with the possibility of a successful coup d'état causing instability in the oil-rich Iran, an ally of the Al-Assad family. Both Iran and China has sold weaponry to Syria.

Compared to Libya, a NATO intervention could hardly establish a no-fly ban on the Syrian Air Force. The air defense systems are more developed and the quantity is huge, especially compared to the Libyan Army. According to reports, Syria has more than 4,000 units of air defense artillery, mainly Soviet-made.

These may be outmoded, but the quantity is huge and the population density is 110 people per square kilometer, so Syria can’t easily be occupied like the almost-empty Libya and its four people per square kilometer.

Syria’s missile park

Besides the air defense capabilities, Syrian air forces have more than 450 combat-capable aircrafts. These are partly used against ground targets and are mostly obsolete, but the Syrian Air Force has 40 MiG-29 fighters and these can be used very successfully against any modern Western aircraft.

If we examine the possibilities of military intervention, we should not forget the missile park of Syria. According to different sources, the army loyal to the regime has about 80-170 tactical ballistic missiles, Soviet and North Korean Scuds and Tochkas. The range of these missiles is about 75-500 km, meaning that Iraq, Turkey and Israel can be attacked with them.

The quantity of longer-range ballistic missiles in Syria is unknown. The missiles can be used with normal warheads, but, according to experts, Syria also possesses chemical and biological weapon technology. The most common agent in the region is Sarin gas.

NATO members could alternatively provide help from the Mediterranean, but Syria has anti-ship defense systems, missiles mainly, both land- and ship-based. The land-based weaponry is mainly outmoded Soviet rockets, but Damascus has bought quite modern Iranian and Chinese anti-ship missile systems.

In 2006, the Syrian army bought the Iranian-made Noors anti-ship cruise missiles, which are identical copies of the Chinese C-802. In 2007 Russia agreed to sell a supersonic cruise missile system named Yakhont to Syria at a price of 300 million US dollars.

Don’t want open confrontation

According to the latest reports, the Free Syria Army is receiving regularly weaponry and communication equipment from foreign organizations and states like Libya and Qatar. As we can see, the elite and well-equipped military forces are loyal to the Al-Assad regime and cannot be brought down without air support.

Even though some analysts think that Syria is not so important to the West because of the lack of oil, the Syrian case is more complicated than Libya was.

The government is well-armed and capable of causing all-out war in the region, or even fighting against a NATO intervention for a short time. This war could also result in heavy military casualties to the invaders. In domestic politics, Western countries could hardly provide justification for any personnel losses.

It is in the interest of Russia, China and even the US to keep the secular Al-Assad regime in power, since the likelihood of an Islamic party coming to power is very possible. Syria is one of the most important states in the Middle East and with peace in the region being very fragile NATO does not really want open confrontation with any allies of Al-Assad. - sumber